Many of you have asked why I haven’t published a post since the election. Well, this morning, I finally came out of the fetal position I have been in since North Carolina was called for Trump on election night.
As described in the “About” tab of this site, I started The Atkin Files because of my love of satire (Stewart, Colbert etc.) as well as a desire to keep sane in today’s political environment. Given the election results, I should now be posting hourly! In all seriousness, The Atkin Files will soon continue with its regular content but, after thirteen days of being in a state of shock and depression, I wanted to write a post that provides my unvarnished views on the recent train wreck. Much has already been written about the debacle but, for my sanity, I did want to present my thoughts to the Democratic National Committee, and to follow, is a note to them.
“To whom it may concern.
Up until this past Tuesday, many of us took comfort in the fact that Donald Trump did not reflect the views of a majority of Americans. With his winning of the popular vote, the new reality is that “Trump is us.” For me, this is the saddest outcome of the election.
As you know, Trump made significant inroads across the board—in blue and red neighborhoods, cities and suburbs, among whites, young voters, Asians, African Americans and Latinos
It is easy to play Monday morning quarterback, however some things seem quite clear.
As James Carville so eloquently says, “Winning is Everything, Stupid!” The Democrats continue to miss the fundamental point that one actually needs to win in order to govern, and to win, you must meet the majority of Americans where they are- warts, biases, economic pain and all. You also need to feed them what they want to eat, and in a country of overweight carnivores, our vegan menu just isn’t selling. The new reality also suggests that candidates are rewarded for blatantly lying as much as needed in order to attain victory.
To be clear, I want to separate my personal views from my commentary. I proudly voted for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It is not necessary for me to list the reasons, or why I believe Trump is dangerous to the country and an atrocious role model for our children.
I also believe that it would be great for our country to have a black woman in the Oval Office, particularly someone as smart, expert and empathetic as Kamala Harris. I would also love to see an optimistic Presidential campaign be effective- selling such things as the importance of immigrants to our nation’s success.
Having stated my preferences, the votes have been tallied, and the results clearly say that the country wants something far different. We need to deal with it.
So, what happened….
I am a big fan of behavioral science. Applying this to elections, rational behavior would suggest that voters make their decisions based on an analysis of each candidate’s policies. In reality though, voting is a visceral decision and plays to our biases and emotions.
For example, there is a general societal bias regarding height. Taller men are more likely to emerge as leaders in a group and more often occupy leadership or managerial positions (Gawley et al., 2009). In Presidential elections, two-thirds of the time, the taller candidate receives more votes.
Voters seem to also apply the “who would you want to go to a bar with” test when making their decision. In 2020, enough working-class voters in the Blue Wall states chose to have a drink with Uncle Joe to win him the election. I would argue that this was because Joe looked like them, and despite being a Democrat, he made them feel safe. Hillary not so much and Kamala less so.
As to the topic of race, just as it is incorrect to say that Trump supporters are racists and misogynists, it is also incorrect to say that race and gender didn’t play a very large role in this election.
We are 0 for 2 against Trump when we have a woman as our candidate. Our white female candidate (Clinton) significantly outperformed our black female candidate. This is despite Trump leading an insurrection and racking up thirty-four felony convictions since Clinton’s loss. We are batting 100% with white males.
Democrats keep pointing to the fact that Obama won and did so with a positive message. That may be correct, but he was a once in a generation politician. As they say, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.
Like it or not, many Americans still have issues related to race, successful women and wokeness. A failure to understand this cost the Democrats the election. Sure, Kamala had the curse of incumbency and couldn’t come up with a cogent economic message, but the trifecta of a black female candidate, fear of brown people coming over the border and our party defending even the most fringe social issues was lethal.
As much as it pains me to say it, I believe that a white, male, mentally fit, less woke, Christian politician would have beaten Trump handily. With these qualities, Joe Biden pulled off a victory in 2016. Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly would have likely won in 2024.
Our candidate also was the result of a grievous error. Biden should never have run in 2024. He promised not to, and his mental degradation was hidden until it was on full display at the debate. Even after he pulled out, a primary could have been run, possibly resulting in a different candidate being chosen. If the shoe was on the other foot, the Republicans would likely have figured out a way to get the highest probability of success candidate in place. They know how to win.
In terms of your messaging, it is way out of touch with what the majority of Americans want. I now put myself. in this category. As discussed above, I am all for protecting social rights, but they are not what the majority of Americans care most about when going through their daily lives. If we want to meet Americans where they are, the extreme wokeness has got to stop. For example, no matter what my position is on letting boys play girls’ sports, it has no business being a national issue or remotely part of our campaign lexicon. For the record, I am against it.
The messengers also play a role in influencing voters’ decisions. It is important to understand that messaging is visual. As they say, you can tell who is winning a Presidential debate by watching it on TV without any volume. It pains me to say that it is a turn-off for many Americans to see that a disproportionate number of Democratic talking heads and political pundits are women or minorities. Turn on the evening shows on CNN or MSNBC and check it out. Again, I happen to really enjoy these shows, but this is not the point.
You seem surprised that forty-six percent of Latinos gave Trump their vote- well you shouldn’t be. Although one can never paint a demographic with the same brush, Latinos are generally conservative people with traditional Catholic family values. The woke platform- i.e. abortion and transgender rights- is antithetical to their core beliefs. Even your position on immigration alienates this demographic. Like the Italians, Irish and other waves of immigrants before them, once assimilated into our society, Latinos do not want millions of new people coming over the border.
When adding this all up, you spent a billion dollars creating the near perfect strategy for driving as many males as possible- of all races, ages and education levels- to the Republican party. Our candidate, coupled with woke messaging made it embarrassing for “real” men to vote for Kamala.
Now I will admit that we did go up against a person with hall of fame political instincts. A New York City snake oil salesman who inherited daddy’s money and has bankrupted almost everything he touches, has successfully sold himself as a great businessman and a man of the disenfranchised. Quite a feat indeed. Trump also shows strength, lies at will, and has a simple message of fear and grievance- something that over half of Americans relate to.
Based on Trump’s ridiculous and dangerous cabinet picks, the next four years are going to be traumatic for the country and the world, but I am cautiously optimistic that Democracy will hold. Just as Trump built less than a quarter mile of his promised wall, he will likely do as little as necessary to “deliver” on the promises he felt he needed to make in order to win the election. Democrats, you may want to think about embracing the strategy of “saying what we need to.”
Trump’s tariffs will either have major loopholes or just be a negotiating position, and given that mass deportations are logistically impossible and prohibitively expensive, he will likely declare victory within nine months and end the cruel practice. In addition, Trump will likely overplay his hand and go after social security or Medicare. If this occurs, there is a good possibility of the Democrats flipping the house in 2026.
As for the Presidency, the electoral college map is only getting worse. A decade of an out of touch Democratic platform has caused Florida and Ohio to become solid red, and the Blue Wall states to become purple. If we are going to be competitive going forward, Democrats need to take a hard look in the mirror and ask themselves if they have the fortitude to do what is necessary in order to get the opportunity to govern.
It is about winning, stupid!
Yup yup yup
Bravo Doug. Thank you for the cogent, concise wrap!